COVID-19: Simulations Show Potential Development of the Pandemic for Various Measures

Jülich, 6 November 2020 – Germany currently finds itself in “lockdown light” due to the rapid increase of reported COVID-19 cases. But how is this development likely to progress? In cooperation with the Frankfurt Institute for Advanced Studies (FIAS), Forschungszentrum Jülich has calculated various possible scenarios for how the pandemic will develop. A various number of lockdowns that differ in terms of their restrictions has been assumed for the period up until May 2021. The results can provide helpful information about the medium- and long-term impact that various contact restrictions might have on the occurrence of infections. However, the effectiveness of specific political decisions cannot be directly derived from the simulations.

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